Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:21 | 9 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:04 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 2:01 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 11 | 40 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 11:25 | 9 | 71 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 6:14 | 5 | 89 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 3:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:05 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 82 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| ARI | Q3 8:08 | 7 | 81 | Turnover | 16–7 |
| LA | Q3 3:57 | 2 | 54 | Turnover | 16–7 |
| ARI | Q3 3:18 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LA | Q3 0:43 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 16–7 |
| ARI | Q4 12:37 | 16 | 87 | Touchdown | 16–14 |
| LA | Q4 4:13 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| ARI | Q4 1:58 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 16–14 |
| LA | Q4 1:41 | 3 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 16–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/28 | 256 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 94 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.