Closing spread
MIA -10.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.103
- 37.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.37CPOE-1.62
- 32.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.19
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/33 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/26 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 26 | 90 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.86