Closing spread
MIA -10.5
Total
36
Model margin
+4.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.103
- 37.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.37CPOE-1.62
- 32.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.35Points / drive1.19
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:35 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:44 | 6 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:24 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 5:56 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 0:14 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 13:42 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:15 | 7 | 77 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 6:49 | 9 | 39 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 1:05 | 8 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:01 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 8:57 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 7:06 | 3 | 14 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 4:42 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q3 3:35 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 1:15 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q4 12:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q4 10:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| TEN | Q4 8:32 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q4 8:05 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| TEN | Q4 3:39 | 4 | 37 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 21 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 19/33 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 60 | 2.9 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/26 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 26 | 90 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.86