Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.050
- 42.0%Success rate39.9%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.07CPOE-2.80
- 39.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.52Points / drive1.44
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 13:16 | 3 | 13 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 10:55 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 9:53 | 4 | 27 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| ARI | Q1 8:19 | 12 | 66 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| ATL | Q1 2:33 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| ARI | Q2 14:45 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–9 |
| ATL | Q2 12:14 | 12 | 82 | Opp touchdown | 10–9 |
| ATL | Q2 5:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–9 |
| ARI | Q2 4:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–9 |
| ATL | Q2 3:26 | 12 | 63 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| ARI | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–12 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 77 | Field goal | 10–15 |
| ARI | Q3 7:12 | 4 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 10–22 |
| ARI | Q3 4:59 | 13 | 38 | Turnover | 10–28 |
| ATL | Q4 13:30 | 1 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–29 |
| ARI | Q4 13:18 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 10–29 |
| ATL | Q4 12:33 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 10–32 |
| ARI | Q4 11:00 | 11 | 58 | Turnover | 10–32 |
| ATL | Q4 5:07 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 10–32 |
| ARI | Q4 2:52 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–32 |
| ATL | Q4 1:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–32 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 11/20 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 5/8 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/22 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 106 | 17.7 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.47