Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.050
- 42.0%Success rate39.9%
- +0.036EPA / dropback-0.078
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.07CPOE-2.80
- 39.4%Third-down rate36.3%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.52Points / drive1.44
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 11/20 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 5/8 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/22 | 153 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 106 | 17.7 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 11 | 101 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.47