Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 12:31 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 11:46 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DET | Q1 8:21 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| LA | Q1 4:48 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DET | Q1 2:58 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| LA | Q1 1:53 | 2 | 30 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| DET | Q1 1:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LA | Q2 14:27 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DET | Q2 12:13 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LA | Q2 8:49 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DET | Q2 7:21 | 12 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:12 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| DET | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–16 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LA | Q3 13:59 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| DET | Q3 11:18 | 7 | 11 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| LA | Q3 8:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–23 |
| DET | Q3 6:26 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 27–23 |
| LA | Q3 4:23 | 8 | 40 | Touchdown | 27–30 |
| DET | Q3 0:44 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 34–30 |
| LA | Q4 11:11 | 11 | 66 | Field goal | 34–33 |
| DET | Q4 6:16 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 34–33 |
| LA | Q4 4:42 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 34–41 |
| DET | Q4 1:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 34–41 |
| LA | Q4 1:49 | 3 | 8 | Missed field goal | 34–41 |
| DET | Q4 0:47 | 5 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 34–41 |
| LA | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 29/43 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.