Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 29/43 | 280 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.