Closing spread
PHI -12
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.055
- 40.0%Success rate43.0%
- -0.018EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.049
- 8.1%Explosive rate11.1%
- -5.72CPOE-1.03
- 38.9%Third-down rate42.8%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.28Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/44 | 205 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2/3 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernand Morency | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 16/30 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
| David Akers | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Ryan Moats | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Reggie Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39