Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.142
- 43.7%Success rate47.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- -0.76CPOE+2.68
- 44.2%Third-down rate47.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.88Points / drive2.59
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 26/44 | 346 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 5 | 8 | 107 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 9 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/36 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2/2 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 10 | 13 | 129 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| James Starks | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.05