2014 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

20·53

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPackers
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.142
  • 43.7%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.133
  • 9.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -0.76CPOE+2.68
  • 44.2%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.59
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00675Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 12:58631Punt0–3
GBQ1 10:201497Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 3:333-5Opp touchdown0–17
PHIQ1 2:00944Field goal3–17
GBQ2 13:08680Touchdown3–24
PHIQ2 10:39732Punt3–24
GBQ2 7:431162Touchdown3–30
PHIQ2 2:00875Field goal6–30
PHIQ3 15:00538Turnover6–30
GBQ3 13:0830Punt6–30
PHIQ3 12:3830Punt6–30
GBQ3 12:14848Field goal6–33
PHIQ3 7:53622Opp touchdown6–39
PHIQ3 5:561080Touchdown13–39
GBQ3 2:21680Touchdown13–46
PHIQ4 14:4036Turnover13–46
GBQ4 14:0134Missed field goal13–46
PHIQ4 12:05426Opp touchdown13–53
PHIQ4 10:391080Touchdown20–53
GBQ4 7:20832Punt20–53
PHIQ4 2:5640Turnover on downs20–53
GBQ4 1:4900End of half20–53

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez26/4434622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy23883.80
Darren Sproles22110.50
Mark Sanchez300.00
Chris Polk300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews581071
Jeremy Maclin911931
Zach Ertz47550
Riley Cooper46390
Darren Sproles26230
LeSean McCoy11180
Brent Celek12110
Brad Smith0100
Josh Huff0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3634130
Matt Flynn2/22600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy10696.91
Aaron Rodgers33210.70
James Starks891.10
Matt Flynn3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb10131290
Jordy Nelson4101091
Eddie Lacy34451
Andrew Quarless22350
Richard Rodgers12190
James Starks22170
Davante Adams22131
Jarrett Boykin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.05