2019 · Week 4

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

34·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPackers
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.059
  • 44.9%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.01CPOE+0.96
  • 45.1%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.12
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–GB
PHIQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:49574Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:31628Punt0–7
GBQ1 7:021578Field goal0–10
PHIQ2 14:01534Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 11:48648Field goal7–13
PHIQ2 8:241245Touchdown14–13
GBQ2 2:4521Turnover14–13
PHIQ2 1:53417Touchdown21–13
GBQ2 0:59765Touchdown21–20
PHIQ2 0:0900End of half21–20
GBQ3 15:0057Punt21–20
PHIQ3 12:55876Touchdown27–20
GBQ3 9:1237Punt27–20
PHIQ3 7:5035Punt27–20
GBQ3 6:50872Touchdown27–27
PHIQ3 3:16875Touchdown34–27
GBQ4 14:131359Turnover on downs34–27
PHIQ4 9:00835Punt34–27
GBQ4 5:021480Turnover34–27
PHIQ4 0:2000End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2716030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard15875.82
Miles Sanders11726.50
Carson Wentz6132.20
Darren Sproles144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz78650
Alshon Jeffery39381
Jordan Howard34281
Dallas Goedert23161
Mack Hollins12130
Nelson Agholor0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers34/5342221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers5469.20
Aaron Jones13211.61
Geronimo Allison177.00
Danny Vitale133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10151800
Jimmy Graham69611
Geronimo Allison34521
Marquez Valdes-Scantling37470
Aaron Jones67370
Marcedes Lewis22190
Danny Vitale23150
Robert Tonyan11110
Jamaal Williams1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10