Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.059
- 44.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.01CPOE+0.96
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 2.01Points / drive2.12
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/27 | 160 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 87 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 34/53 | 422 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 15 | 180 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10