2024 · Week 1

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

29·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Arena Corinthians · outdoors

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.030EPA / rush+0.056
  • 11.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.37CPOE+6.20
  • 37.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.46
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
GBQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:403-5Turnover0–0
GBQ1 10:4654Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 8:2634Turnover3–0
GBQ1 7:06928Field goal6–0
PHIQ1 3:011164Touchdown6–7
GBQ2 12:38570Touchdown12–7
PHIQ2 10:16970Touchdown12–14
GBQ2 5:34370Touchdown19–14
PHIQ2 5:111362Field goal19–17
PHIQ3 15:00270Touchdown19–24
GBQ3 14:09837Touchdown26–24
PHIQ3 11:553-4Punt26–24
GBQ3 10:26512Punt26–24
PHIQ3 8:4738Punt26–24
GBQ3 7:2139Turnover26–24
PHIQ3 6:08424Touchdown26–31
GBQ3 4:26845Missed field goal26–31
PHIQ3 0:17753Turnover26–31
GBQ4 12:53979Field goal29–31
PHIQ4 7:521764Field goal29–34
GBQ4 0:27433End of half29–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love17/3426021
Malik Willis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs16845.30
Emanuel Wilson44611.50
Jayden Reed13333.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed461381
Romeo Doubs47500
Tucker Kraft23370
Josh Jacobs23200
Christian Watson35131
Emanuel Wilson2320
Dontayvion Wicks0300
Luke Musgrave0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts20/3427822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley241094.52
Jalen Hurts13332.50
Kenny Gainwell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown5101191
DeVonta Smith78840
Dallas Goedert45310
Saquon Barkley22231
Grant Calcaterra11110
Kenny Gainwell11100
Jahan Dotson0100
Johnny Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69