2022 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

33·40

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 24mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.017EPA / play+0.100
  • 46.2%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.009EPA / rush+0.072
  • 9.7%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +0.52CPOE+2.05
  • 39.3%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.43
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 11:1936Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 10:23329Touchdown0–13
GBQ1 9:02459Touchdown7–13
PHIQ1 6:4049Turnover on downs7–13
GBQ1 5:00537Touchdown14–13
PHIQ1 3:09775Touchdown14–20
GBQ2 14:54647Turnover14–20
PHIQ2 11:12639Turnover14–20
GBQ2 8:38323Touchdown20–20
PHIQ2 7:4132Punt20–20
GBQ2 5:48511Punt20–20
PHIQ2 2:161066Touchdown20–27
GBQ2 0:1300End of half20–27
GBQ3 15:003-2Punt20–27
PHIQ3 12:421191Touchdown20–34
GBQ3 7:19949Field goal23–34
PHIQ3 2:031361Field goal23–37
GBQ4 11:11475Touchdown30–37
PHIQ4 9:00943Field goal30–40
GBQ4 2:16638Field goal33–40
PHIQ4 1:08311End of half33–40

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers11/1614022
Jordan Love6/911310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon8648.01
Aaron Jones12433.60
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson461101
Aaron Jones34561
Allen Lazard23240
AJ Dillon34240
Robert Tonyan33200
Randall Cobb24191
Tyler Davis0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2815320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts171579.20
Miles Sanders211436.82
Kenny Gainwell8394.91
Boston Scott3248.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith49500
A.J. Brown46461
Quez Watkins35351
Miles Sanders33170
Kenny Gainwell1170
Grant Calcaterra11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.11