Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.017EPA / play+0.100
- 46.2%Success rate47.9%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.009EPA / rush+0.072
- 9.7%Explosive rate11.3%
- +0.52CPOE+2.05
- 39.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.43
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 11/16 | 140 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordan Love | 6/9 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 110 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/28 | 153 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17 | 157 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 21 | 143 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.11