Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
47
Model margin
-0.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.017
- 45.9%Success rate43.8%
- +0.243EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.71CPOE-0.81
- 47.4%Third-down rate38.3%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.39Points / drive1.86
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 30/39 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 6 | 113 | 2 |
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 12 | 91 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 24/36 | 254 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48