2016 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

47

Model margin

-0.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.017
  • 45.9%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.243EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +2.71CPOE-0.81
  • 47.4%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.86
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
GBQ1 15:001075Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 9:511181Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 3:40975Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 14:53636Punt14–7
GBQ2 11:161243Punt14–7
PHIQ2 3:281264Field goal14–10
GBQ2 0:2500End of half14–10
PHIQ3 15:00725Turnover14–10
GBQ3 11:20457Field goal17–10
PHIQ3 8:481043Field goal17–13
GBQ3 5:211558Touchdown24–13
PHIQ4 13:53824Punt24–13
GBQ4 10:181882Field goal27–13
PHIQ4 1:57519Turnover on downs27–13
GBQ4 0:5300End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers30/3931320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks17412.40
Aaron Rodgers6264.30
Christine Michael144.00
Ty Montgomery122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams561132
Jordy Nelson812910
Randall Cobb67410
James Starks55270
Ty Montgomery22120
Jared Cook1270
Jeff Janis1170
Richard Rodgers0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz24/3625401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood9374.10
Carson Wentz4338.31
Darren Sproles362.00
Bryce Treggs133.00
Kenjon Barner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dorial Green-Beckham610820
Darren Sproles57480
Jordan Matthews44470
Zach Ertz36360
Bryce Treggs13110
Kenjon Barner11100
Trey Burton34100
Wendell Smallwood11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.48