Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.111
- 44.8%Success rate45.2%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.030EPA / rush+0.056
- 11.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.37CPOE+6.20
- 37.6%Third-down rate42.4%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.38Points / drive2.46
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/33 | 212 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 81 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13/21 | 131 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 25 | 119 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69