2024 · WC

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

10·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapEagles
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.030EPA / rush+0.056
  • 11.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.37CPOE+6.20
  • 37.6%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.46
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–PHI
GBQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
PHIQ1 14:53328Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 13:2132Punt0–7
PHIQ1 12:09518Punt0–7
GBQ1 9:13611Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:191057Field goal0–10
GBQ1 0:1923Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 14:52411Punt0–10
GBQ2 12:421342Missed field goal0–10
PHIQ2 5:0535Punt0–10
GBQ2 3:25844Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 0:3636Punt0–10
GBQ2 0:1400End of half0–10
PHIQ3 15:0052Punt0–10
GBQ3 11:331362Field goal3–10
PHIQ3 5:46568Touchdown3–16
GBQ3 3:20978Touchdown10–16
PHIQ4 14:561463Field goal10–19
GBQ4 7:33521Turnover on downs10–19
PHIQ4 4:58512Field goal10–22
GBQ4 3:12640Turnover10–22
PHIQ4 1:51221End of half10–22

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love20/3321203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs18814.51
Jordan Love2105.00
Tucker Kraft2105.00
Emanuel Wilson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed44460
Josh Jacobs33400
Dontayvion Wicks26390
Tucker Kraft55260
Emanuel Wilson13230
Bo Melton13160
Romeo Doubs22130
Chris Brooks2390
Malik Heath0400

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts13/2113120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley251194.80
Jalen Hurts6366.00
Kenny Gainwell3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith44550
Dallas Goedert46471
Jahan Dotson12111
A.J. Brown13100
Saquon Barkley2240
Grant Calcaterra1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69