Closing spread
GB -8
Total
50
Model margin
+7.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.221
- 41.8%Success rate50.7%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.025
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.93CPOE+6.90
- 36.0%Third-down rate50.7%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 1.61Points / drive2.98
- 2.6%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 5/12 | 109 | 1 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 6/15 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 3 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/34 | 295 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 130 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 12 | 121 | 2 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 5 | 39 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Malik Taylor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.02