2020 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

16·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -8

Total

50

Model margin

+7.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPackers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.221
  • 41.8%Success rate50.7%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.081EPA / rush+0.025
  • 7.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.93CPOE+6.90
  • 36.0%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.98
  • 2.6%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PHI @ GB10–7PHI
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–GB
PHIQ1 15:001546Field goal3–0
GBQ1 7:5332Punt3–0
PHIQ1 5:41621Punt3–0
GBQ1 1:111488Touchdown3–7
PHIQ2 8:2954Punt3–7
GBQ2 4:43782Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 0:57619End of half3–14
GBQ3 15:0033Punt3–14
PHIQ3 13:49437Punt3–14
GBQ3 12:00799Touchdown3–20
PHIQ3 7:39744Punt3–20
GBQ3 3:351372Field goal3–23
PHIQ4 11:191083Touchdown10–23
GBQ4 7:5233Opp touchdown16–23
GBQ4 6:3030Punt16–23
PHIQ4 4:4957Punt16–23
GBQ4 2:57280Touchdown16–30
PHIQ4 2:36417Turnover16–30
GBQ4 1:47311End of half16–30

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts5/1210911
Carson Wentz6/157900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders10313.10
Jalen Hurts5295.80
Jordan Howard4194.80
Carson Wentz3186.00
Jalen Reagor11111.00
Boston Scott294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert57660
Greg Ward35571
Jalen Reagor11340
Zach Ertz24310
Alshon Jeffery0100
Boston Scott0200
Miles Sanders0100
Travis Fulgham0200
John Hightower0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3429530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones151308.71
Jamaal Williams5265.20
Aaron Rodgers4-3-0.80
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10121212
Allen Lazard34500
Robert Tonyan45391
Marcedes Lewis11360
Aaron Jones33180
Malik Taylor11140
Jamaal Williams22100
Equanimeous St. Brown1270
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.02