Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.122
- 43.3%Success rate48.0%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.274
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.076
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.26CPOE+5.62
- 37.5%Third-down rate48.8%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.11Points / drive2.39
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/26 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 60 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/36 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.30