2025 · Week 10

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

10·7

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPackers
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.122
  • 43.3%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.274
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.076
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.26CPOE+5.62
  • 37.5%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.39
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 11–7 since 1999

PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsGB @ PHI10–22PHI
2024 · W1GB @ PHI29–34PHI
2022 · W12GB @ PHI33–40PHI
2020 · W13PHI @ GB16–30GB
2019 · W4PHI @ GB34–27PHI
2016 · W12GB @ PHI27–13GB
2014 · W11PHI @ GB20–53GB
2013 · W10PHI @ GB27–13PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00912Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:351682Turnover0–0
GBQ1 0:49312Punt0–0
PHIQ2 14:4633Punt0–0
GBQ2 12:29524Punt0–0
PHIQ2 8:2838Punt0–0
GBQ2 7:2532Punt0–0
PHIQ2 6:37826Punt0–0
GBQ2 1:54833Turnover0–0
PHIQ2 0:2346Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ3 15:00955Field goal3–0
GBQ3 8:58832Turnover on downs3–0
PHIQ3 4:4231Punt3–0
GBQ3 2:32945Punt3–0
PHIQ4 12:46480Touchdown10–0
GBQ4 10:351254Touchdown10–7
PHIQ4 5:49929Punt10–7
GBQ4 2:18729Turnover10–7
PHIQ4 1:2644Turnover on downs10–7
GBQ4 0:27318Missed field goal10–7

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2618310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley22602.70
Jalen Hurts5275.40
Will Shipley4174.30
Tank Bigsby372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith47691
Dallas Goedert46430
Saquon Barkley33410
Will Shipley22170
A.J. Brown23130
Grant Calcaterra0100
Jahan Dotson0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love20/3617600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs21743.51
Jordan Love5285.60
Emanuel Wilson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson24450
Dontayvion Wicks48380
Josh Jacobs56330
Bo Melton25280
Luke Musgrave33230
Romeo Doubs1450
Emanuel Wilson1120
Savion Williams2220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.30