Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.019
- 51.4%Success rate43.0%
- +0.294EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.5%
- +4.70CPOE+2.38
- 56.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 2.54Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48.4 points. NYJ are 9-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 14:02 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:28 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:36 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:01 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:01 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:12 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 14:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:22 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 10:10 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:10 | 12 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 4:44 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -3 | End of half | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:11 | 16 | 77 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| IND | Q3 4:31 | 14 | 83 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:58 | 12 | 57 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| IND | Q4 7:55 | 14 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:34 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| IND | Q4 2:20 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 31–28 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:50 | 5 | 63 | Turnover | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/30 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/23 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99