Closing spread
MIA -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.062
- 41.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.62CPOE+4.14
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.19Points / drive1.41
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 13:21 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:49 | 10 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:31 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:13 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q2 11:58 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 5:10 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 0:22 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q3 11:28 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| HOU | Q3 7:55 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 6–3 |
| MIA | Q3 5:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–3 |
| HOU | Q3 4:56 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| MIA | Q4 14:55 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q4 13:20 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| MIA | Q4 9:49 | 10 | 76 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| HOU | Q4 5:41 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 9–17 |
| MIA | Q4 3:40 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 15–17 |
| HOU | Q4 1:39 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 15–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/39 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/29 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 22 | 58 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Edell Shepherd | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | -8 | -2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85