2024 · Week 15

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

12·20

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTexans
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.038
  • 44.3%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.120
  • 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.08CPOE-2.77
  • 35.4%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–HOU
MIAQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:20755Field goal0–3
MIAQ1 7:0933Punt0–3
HOUQ1 5:573-6Punt0–3
MIAQ1 4:151254Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 11:353-5Punt3–3
MIAQ2 10:074-7Turnover3–3
HOUQ2 9:25423Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 6:45947Field goal6–10
HOUQ2 1:57419Turnover6–10
MIAQ2 0:4244Turnover6–10
HOUQ2 0:1320Field goal6–13
HOUQ3 15:00965Touchdown6–20
MIAQ3 11:021363Touchdown12–20
HOUQ3 4:3031Punt12–20
MIAQ3 2:101353Turnover12–20
HOUQ4 10:261036Punt12–20
MIAQ4 4:203-4Punt12–20
HOUQ4 2:503-5Punt12–20
MIAQ4 1:4410Turnover12–20
HOUQ4 1:3700End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa29/4019613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane12413.40
Raheem Mostert681.30
Jaylen Wright133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Washington56520
Jonnu Smith911481
Tyreek Hill27360
De'Von Achane77350
Raheem Mostert33130
Durham Smythe1180
River Cracraft1160
Jaylen Waddle0200
Grant DuBose11-20

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud18/2613120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale13535.00
Joe Mixon12231.90
Tank Dell11515.00
C.J. Stroud640.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Mixon56330
Tank Dell22260
Nico Collins46172
John Metchie III24170
Dalton Schultz24130
Xavier Hutchinson11130
Robert Woods22120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.10