Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.038
- 44.3%Success rate39.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.120
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.08CPOE-2.77
- 35.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.92Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 29/40 | 196 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Washington | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 9 | 11 | 48 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 7 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant DuBose | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 18/26 | 131 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 17 | 2 |
| John Metchie III | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.10