Closing spread
MIA -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.032
- 40.4%Success rate40.5%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -4.17CPOE+1.20
- 39.6%Third-down rate31.0%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.50Points / drive1.42
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 23/49 | 273 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 9 | 16 | 127 | 2 |
| Arian Foster | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 12 | 50 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/19 | 282 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 175 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Jonas Gray | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 5 | 83 | 2 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 3 | 75 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.38