2015 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brian Hoyer

26·44

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.032
  • 40.4%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.022EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.172EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -4.17CPOE+1.20
  • 39.6%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.42
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIA
HOUQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:51688Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 10:573-3Punt0–7
MIAQ1 9:3439Punt0–7
HOUQ1 7:5237Punt0–13
MIAQ1 7:00150Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 6:453-3Punt0–14
MIAQ1 5:10445Touchdown0–21
HOUQ1 3:0331Punt0–21
MIAQ1 2:00683Touchdown0–28
HOUQ2 14:1020Opp touchdown0–35
HOUQ2 13:5633Punt0–35
MIAQ2 12:17828Punt0–35
HOUQ2 8:061661Turnover on downs0–35
MIAQ2 3:30291Touchdown0–41
HOUQ2 2:4751Punt0–41
MIAQ2 1:034-2End of half0–41
MIAQ3 15:0033Punt0–41
HOUQ3 12:56615Punt0–41
MIAQ3 10:2939Turnover0–41
HOUQ3 9:12431Touchdown6–41
MIAQ3 8:13410Punt6–41
HOUQ3 5:41878Touchdown13–41
MIAQ3 1:45417Punt13–41
HOUQ4 14:04958Touchdown20–41
MIAQ4 11:27840Field goal20–44
HOUQ4 7:411275Touchdown26–44
MIAQ4 4:00434End of half26–44

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer23/4927331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster18593.31
Alfred Blue382.70
Chris Polk441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington9161272
Arian Foster57661
DeAndre Hopkins612500
Keith Mumphery13160
Chris Polk23140
Garrett Graham0400
Jonathan Grimes0100
C.J. Fiedorowicz0200
Jaelen Strong0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/1928240
Matt Moore1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller1417512.51
Jonas Gray12484.00
Damien Williams4194.80
Jarvis Landry155.00
Ryan Tannehill133.00
Matt Moore3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry55832
Rishard Matthews33751
Lamar Miller33611
Greg Jennings22370
Jordan Cameron22230
Jonas Gray11100
Damien Williams22100
Dion Sims12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.38