Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play-0.046
- 37.6%Success rate41.8%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.180
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.54CPOE-0.02
- 38.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.50Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 24/43 | 240 | 0 | 3 |
| Danny Amendola | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Scottie Phillips | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 14 | 56 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 26/43 | 244 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 20 | 34 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 8 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 6 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Kirk Merritt | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77