2021 · Week 9

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

9·17

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jacoby Brissett

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

45

Model margin

+1.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.134EPA / play-0.046
  • 37.6%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.180
  • 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.54CPOE-0.02
  • 38.7%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.58
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:12856Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 10:401375Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 4:3733Punt0–7
MIAQ1 3:4720Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 3:32717Punt0–7
MIAQ1 0:33515Turnover0–7
HOUQ2 13:09620Field goal3–7
MIAQ2 9:483-2Punt3–7
HOUQ2 8:51619Punt3–7
HOUQ2 5:3036Field goal6–7
MIAQ2 4:321046Field goal6–10
HOUQ2 1:082-8Turnover6–10
MIAQ2 0:53426Touchdown6–17
HOUQ2 0:2918End of half6–17
HOUQ3 15:00510Turnover6–17
MIAQ3 13:0436Turnover6–17
HOUQ3 11:3948Punt6–17
MIAQ3 10:191547Punt6–17
HOUQ3 2:121392Field goal9–17
MIAQ4 11:32828Turnover9–17
HOUQ4 7:52513Punt9–17
MIAQ4 5:13620Punt9–17
HOUQ4 2:57215Turnover9–17
MIAQ4 2:2831Punt9–17
HOUQ4 0:27313End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor24/4324003
Danny Amendola0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay8283.50
Tyrod Taylor3237.70
David Johnson4112.80
Rex Burkhead294.50
Scottie Phillips122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks614560
Danny Amendola37490
Chris Conley23380
David Johnson35290
Nico Collins33250
Antony Auclair22230
Brevin Jordan2290
Jordan Akins2370
Chris Moore1140

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett26/4324412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin20341.71
Jacoby Brissett177.00
Salvon Ahmed461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle810830
Mike Gesicki48540
Durham Smythe22270
Myles Gaskin66230
Mack Hollins36221
Kirk Merritt13130
Albert Wilson12110
Adam Shaheen12110
Isaiah Ford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77