2022 · Week 12

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Kyle Allen

15·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -14

Total

47

Model margin

+5.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapDolphins
  • -0.167EPA / play+0.054
  • 38.0%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -4.69CPOE+0.08
  • 30.1%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.17Points / drive2.11
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIA
HOUQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:22949Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 10:214-1Punt0–3
MIAQ1 7:41859Touchdown0–10
HOUQ1 2:57513Punt0–10
MIAQ1 1:06740Punt0–10
HOUQ2 13:1821Turnover0–16
MIAQ2 12:2713Touchdown0–17
HOUQ2 12:2234Punt0–17
MIAQ2 10:54972Field goal0–20
HOUQ2 6:223-7Opp touchdown0–27
HOUQ2 4:59518Punt0–27
MIAQ2 1:521064Field goal0–30
MIAQ3 15:00710Punt0–30
HOUQ3 10:3831Punt0–30
MIAQ3 8:2930Punt0–30
HOUQ3 6:28649Touchdown6–30
MIAQ3 3:18623Turnover6–30
HOUQ3 0:11655Touchdown12–30
MIAQ4 12:4642Punt12–30
HOUQ4 11:47757Field goal15–30
MIAQ4 9:0035Punt15–30
HOUQ4 7:1240Punt15–30
MIAQ4 4:483-1Punt15–30
HOUQ4 4:20716Turnover15–30
MIAQ4 2:40213End of half15–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen26/3921512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale4143.51
Kyle Allen4123.00
Dameon Pierce581.60
Brandin Cooks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Akins55611
Brandin Cooks55590
Nico Collins69440
Teagan Quitoriano22200
Dameon Pierce3680
Chris Moore2370
Dare Ogunbowale1260
Rex Burkhead1250
Phillip Dorsett1250
O.J. Howard0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/3629910
Skylar Thompson1/5600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson13393.01
Myles Gaskin6172.80
Tyreek Hill155.00
Skylar Thompson650.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill69850
Jaylen Waddle510850
River Cracraft44550
Trent Sherfield25330
Cedrick Wilson Jr.23260
Jeff Wilson13130
Durham Smythe1141
Myles Gaskin1140
Mike Gesicki0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.64
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.95