Closing spread
MIA -14
Total
47
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.054
- 38.0%Success rate44.6%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.69CPOE+0.08
- 30.1%Third-down rate37.6%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.17Points / drive2.11
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 26/39 | 215 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyle Allen | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Akins | 5 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/36 | 299 | 1 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 1/5 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.64
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.95