Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.004
- 46.2%Success rate45.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.023
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.51CPOE+0.24
- 41.5%Third-down rate48.8%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.82
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/31 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Ryan Moats | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 4 | 79 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 35/55 | 322 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 10 | 45 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33