2009 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

27·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapDolphins
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.004
  • 46.2%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.149EPA / rush+0.023
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.51CPOE+0.24
  • 41.5%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 55.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.82
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIA
HOUQ1 15:00545Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 11:47828Punt3–0
HOUQ1 7:27980Touchdown10–0
MIAQ1 2:0539Punt10–0
HOUQ1 0:36694Touchdown17–0
MIAQ2 12:4110Turnover17–0
HOUQ2 12:25328Touchdown24–0
MIAQ2 11:4449Punt24–0
HOUQ2 10:161160Field goal27–0
MIAQ2 4:251961Field goal27–3
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half27–3
MIAQ3 15:001384Touchdown27–10
HOUQ3 10:10536Turnover27–10
MIAQ3 7:133-3Missed field goal27–10
HOUQ3 5:5268Punt27–10
MIAQ3 3:171038Punt27–10
HOUQ4 14:53521Punt27–10
MIAQ4 12:01674Touchdown27–17
HOUQ4 9:25619Punt27–17
MIAQ4 6:1935Punt27–17
HOUQ4 5:0834Punt27–17
MIAQ4 4:391058Field goal27–20
HOUQ4 2:30313End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/3128621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19975.11
Ryan Moats8232.90
Chris Brown294.50
Matt Schaub3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacoby Jones24791
Andre Johnson57711
Joel Dreessen46650
Ryan Moats44390
Kevin Walter34210
David Anderson13100
Chris Brown1210

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne35/5532211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams10353.50
Chad Henne11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn57820
Davone Bess510450
Greg Camarillo35320
Brian Hartline36310
Ricky Williams57260
Joey Haynos34170
Anthony Fasano1480
Kory Sperry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33