2012 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

10·30

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -13

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTexans
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.069
  • 42.9%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.89CPOE-0.02
  • 37.7%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.89
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–HOU
MIAQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:321156Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 7:10737Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 3:1239Punt3–0
MIAQ1 1:01621Punt3–0
HOUQ2 13:53645Punt3–0
MIAQ2 10:58841Turnover3–0
HOUQ2 7:233-5Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 6:12644Turnover3–3
HOUQ2 4:00754Touchdown3–10
MIAQ2 1:5310Turnover3–10
HOUQ2 1:3631Touchdown3–17
MIAQ2 0:4311Turnover3–17
HOUQ2 0:28331Touchdown3–24
MIAQ2 0:0700End of half3–24
HOUQ3 15:0038Opp touchdown10–24
HOUQ3 13:121064Field goal10–27
MIAQ3 6:303-5Punt10–27
HOUQ3 4:211172Field goal10–30
MIAQ4 12:221164Turnover on downs10–30
HOUQ4 8:1635Punt10–30
MIAQ4 6:32746Turnover on downs10–30
HOUQ4 4:0031Punt10–30
MIAQ4 2:134-4Turnover on downs10–30
HOUQ4 1:4400End of half10–30

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3621903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14694.90
Daniel Thomas3113.70
Ryan Tannehill3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline38500
Reggie Bush66460
Davone Bess57450
Daniel Thomas13320
Anthony Fasano35190
Anthony Armstrong1330
Legedu Naanee0200
Charles Clay0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/3126610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster26793.02
Ben Tate561.20
Matt Schaub4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8101191
Owen Daniels48870
Ben Tate33220
James Casey12170
Kevin Walter22160
Lestar Jean1290
Keshawn Martin0100
Arian Foster13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.61