Closing spread
HOU -13
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play+0.069
- 42.9%Success rate43.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.89CPOE-0.02
- 37.7%Third-down rate38.1%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.37Points / drive1.89
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/36 | 219 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/31 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 26 | 79 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Ben Tate | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61