2011 · Week 2

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

23·13

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapDolphins
  • +0.024EPA / play-0.033
  • 44.6%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.116
  • 11.9%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -0.14CPOE+2.28
  • 41.5%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.63
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2018 · W8MIA @ HOU23–42HOU
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–MIA
HOUQ1 15:001175Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 9:583-6Punt3–0
HOUQ1 8:37740Field goal6–0
MIAQ1 4:33655Field goal6–3
HOUQ1 2:25528Punt6–3
MIAQ1 0:1020Turnover6–3
HOUQ2 14:5326Touchdown13–3
MIAQ2 14:091375Missed field goal13–3
HOUQ2 6:56412Punt13–3
MIAQ2 5:01617Missed field goal13–3
HOUQ2 2:42858Field goal16–3
MIAQ3 15:00615Punt16–3
HOUQ3 11:59521Punt16–3
MIAQ3 9:43762Touchdown16–10
HOUQ3 6:373-10Punt16–10
MIAQ3 4:48113Turnover16–10
HOUQ3 4:37614Punt16–10
MIAQ3 1:191075Field goal16–13
HOUQ4 12:53563Touchdown23–13
MIAQ4 10:0639Punt23–13
HOUQ4 8:01829Punt23–13
MIAQ4 2:514-9Turnover on downs23–13
HOUQ4 2:04410End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub21/2923020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate231034.50
Arian Foster10333.30
Matt Schaub221.00
Steve Slaton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson79931
Jacoby Jones34480
Ben Tate44320
Owen Daniels35251
Bryant Johnson11160
Joel Dreessen1290
Arian Foster2270

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne12/3017011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas181075.90
Chad Henne3268.70
Reggie Bush6183.00
Larry Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall611791
Davone Bess25420
Brian Hartline27360
Daniel Thomas11100
Reggie Bush1130
Anthony Fasano0200
Jeron Mastrud0100
Clyde Gates0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.31
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.16