Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.033
- 44.6%Success rate39.0%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.116
- 11.9%Explosive rate10.5%
- -0.14CPOE+2.28
- 41.5%Third-down rate33.1%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate53.6%
- 2.04Points / drive1.63
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 21/29 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 23 | 103 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 12/30 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 11 | 79 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeron Mastrud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.31
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.16