2018 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brock Osweiler

23·42

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

+3.6est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTexans
  • -0.111EPA / play+0.032
  • 40.1%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.149
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.24CPOE+4.58
  • 30.3%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.91
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–3 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15MIA @ HOU12–20HOU
2022 · W12HOU @ MIA15–30MIA
2021 · W9HOU @ MIA9–17MIA
2015 · W7HOU @ MIA26–44MIA
2012 · W1MIA @ HOU10–30HOU
2011 · W2HOU @ MIA23–13HOU
2009 · W16HOU @ MIA27–20HOU
2008 · W6MIA @ HOU28–29HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–HOU
MIAQ1 15:00837Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 10:4937Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:30957Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 4:58975Touchdown7–7
MIAQ1 0:3125Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 14:50216Touchdown7–14
MIAQ2 14:1437Punt7–14
HOUQ2 12:411059Punt7–14
MIAQ2 7:29961Field goal10–14
HOUQ2 2:5739Punt10–14
MIAQ2 1:36621Punt10–14
HOUQ2 0:2000End of half10–14
HOUQ3 15:00780Touchdown10–21
MIAQ3 11:34716Punt10–21
HOUQ3 8:5142Punt10–21
MIAQ3 6:41451Touchdown17–21
HOUQ3 4:55275Touchdown17–28
MIAQ3 4:21652Field goal20–28
HOUQ3 0:36249Touchdown20–35
MIAQ4 14:49646Field goal23–35
HOUQ4 11:26832Touchdown23–42
MIAQ4 7:343-4Punt23–42
HOUQ4 5:53924Punt23–42
MIAQ4 1:06321End of half23–42

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler21/3724101
Danny Amendola1/12810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake12584.81
Frank Gore12534.40
Kalen Ballage155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker691340
Danny Amendola56430
Kenyan Drake22371
Jakeem Grant48360
Mike Gesicki45140
Frank Gore1250
Durham Smythe0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2023950

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller181337.41
Alfred Blue15422.80
Deshaun Watson11414.00
Brandon Weeden1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller561241
DeAndre Hopkins67822
Tyler Ervin1140
Lamar Miller0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.63