Closing spread
HOU -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play+0.032
- 40.1%Success rate44.3%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.149
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.24CPOE+4.58
- 30.3%Third-down rate36.4%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.45Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 21/37 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 1/1 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 9 | 134 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/20 | 239 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 18 | 133 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 5 | 6 | 124 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 7 | 82 | 2 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63