2006 · Week 4

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

13·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 68°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

33.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

BAL lead 10–4 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12BAL @ LAC30–23BAL
2023 · W12BAL @ LAC20–10BAL
2021 · W6LAC @ BAL6–34BAL
2018 · playoffsLAC @ BAL23–17CHARGERS
2018 · W16BAL @ LAC22–10BAL
2015 · W8SD @ BAL26–29BAL
2014 · W13SD @ BAL34–33CHARGERS
2012 · W12BAL @ SD16–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–BAL
LACQ1 15:00969Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 10:2131Punt7–0
LACQ1 9:132-1Turnover7–0
BALQ1 8:20522Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 5:28946Field goal10–7
BALQ2 14:5165Punt10–7
LACQ2 11:02519Punt10–7
BALQ2 7:2110Turnover10–7
LACQ2 7:1036Punt10–7
BALQ2 5:0645Punt10–7
LACQ2 3:08425Field goal13–7
BALQ2 1:51613Punt13–7
LACQ2 0:3832Punt13–7
BALQ2 0:1100End of half13–7
BALQ3 15:0032Punt13–7
LACQ3 13:58750Missed field goal13–7
BALQ3 9:42869Turnover13–7
LACQ3 4:42735Punt13–7
BALQ3 0:30615Punt13–7
LACQ4 12:2537Punt13–7
BALQ4 10:48311Turnover13–7
LACQ4 9:2757Turnover on downs13–7
BALQ4 7:1939Punt13–7
LACQ4 5:2943Safety13–9
BALQ4 3:12755Touchdown13–16
LACQ4 0:34516End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair17/3015822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis15342.30
Musa Smith2147.00
Steve McNair2115.50
Mike Anderson100.00
Mark Clayton1-3-3.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.00

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.