Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
33.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/30 | 158 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.