Closing spread
KC -7
Total
39
Model margin
+5.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.009
- 39.6%Success rate41.1%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.50CPOE+3.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate41.1%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.43Points / drive1.66
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 13/25 | 92 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 18/23 | 208 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 30 | 101 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Ronnie Cruz | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.14