Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.135
- 44.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.094
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.34CPOE+1.86
- 45.8%Third-down rate48.7%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.28Points / drive2.59
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:55 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| KC | Q1 7:57 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:31 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:08 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| SF | Q2 9:32 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| KC | Q2 5:05 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:59 | 4 | 25 | End of half | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| KC | Q3 9:29 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| SF | Q3 5:23 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| KC | Q3 2:35 | 12 | 52 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| SF | Q4 11:57 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 20–10 |
| KC | Q4 8:53 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| SF | Q4 6:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–17 |
| KC | Q4 5:10 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| SF | Q4 2:44 | 7 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 20–24 |
| KC | Q4 1:25 | 2 | 42 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| SF | Q4 1:12 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 20–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/31 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/42 | 286 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 17 | 104 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 16 | 105 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 8 | 29 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27