Closing spread
KC -1
Total
49
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.084
- 50.6%Success rate46.1%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +3.02CPOE-1.99
- 49.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.71Points / drive2.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/34 | 423 | 3 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 8 | 124 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 4 | 111 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 25/37 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 4/9 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Gray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50