2022 · Week 7

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

44·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

49

Model margin

+2.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge map49ers
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.084
  • 50.6%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.021
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +3.02CPOE-1.99
  • 49.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–3 since 1999

KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7KC @ SF28–18KC
2023 · playoffsSF @ KC22–25KC
2019 · playoffsSF @ KC20–31KC
2018 · W3SF @ KC27–38KC
2014 · W5KC @ SF17–22SF
2010 · W3SF @ KC10–31KC
2006 · W4SF @ KC0–41KC
2002 · W10KC @ SF13–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SF
SFQ1 15:00963Field goal0–3
KCQ1 10:2233Turnover0–3
SFQ1 8:43434Touchdown0–10
KCQ1 6:291073Touchdown7–10
SFQ1 2:07951Field goal7–13
KCQ2 12:111285Touchdown14–13
SFQ2 7:09963Punt14–13
SFQ2 1:4737Turnover14–13
KCQ2 1:28888Missed field goal14–13
SFQ2 0:0600End of half14–13
KCQ3 15:00333Touchdown21–13
SFQ3 13:281052Field goal21–16
KCQ3 7:411085Touchdown28–16
SFQ3 3:311181Touchdown28–23
KCQ4 14:16680Touchdown35–23
SFQ4 10:434-10Safety37–23
KCQ4 8:49682Touchdown44–23
SFQ4 6:05837Turnover44–23
KCQ4 4:0033Punt44–23
SFQ4 3:391067Turnover44–23
KCQ4 1:3000End of half44–23

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/3442331
Chad Henne0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco8435.40
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6325.31
Mecole Hardman22814.02
Jerick McKinnon2126.00
Chad Henne3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster781241
Marquez Valdes-Scantling341110
Travis Kelce68980
Jerick McKinnon23360
Mecole Hardman44321
Noah Gray11100
Joseph Fortson1280
Justin Watson1241
Clyde Edwards-Helaire0100
Skyy Moore0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo25/3730321
Brock Purdy4/96601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson7547.70
Christian McCaffrey8384.80
Tyrion Davis-Price242.00
Jimmy Garoppolo221.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.122.00
Brock Purdy111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle69981
Brandon Aiyuk711820
Ray-Ray McCloud44651
Deebo Samuel Sr.57420
Christian McCaffrey22240
Jauan Jennings24240
Jeff Wilson0100
Tyrion Davis-Price0200
Danny Gray0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.50