Closing spread
SF -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
-1.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.021
- 51.6%Success rate43.8%
- +0.298EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.111
- 13.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.51CPOE+1.52
- 48.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.69Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 23/38 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 8 | 80 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 5 | 42 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 34/46 | 333 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 57 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 6 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 6 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Richie James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage0.00
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.67