2023 · SB

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

22·25

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

SF -1.5

Total

47

Model margin

-1.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.021
  • 51.6%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback+0.082
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.111
  • 13.8%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +4.51CPOE+1.52
  • 48.1%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 70.4%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.69Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–3 since 1999

KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7KC @ SF28–18KC
2022 · W7KC @ SF44–23KC
2019 · playoffsSF @ KC20–31KC
2018 · W3SF @ KC27–38KC
2014 · W5KC @ SF17–22SF
2010 · W3SF @ KC10–31KC
2006 · W4SF @ KC0–41KC
2002 · W10KC @ SF13–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–KC
SFQ1 15:00548Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:1536Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:16536Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:28410Punt0–0
SFQ1 3:531041Field goal3–0
KCQ2 14:48564Turnover3–0
SFQ2 11:5946Punt3–0
KCQ2 9:1637Punt3–0
SFQ2 7:49852Touchdown10–0
KCQ2 4:231270Field goal10–3
SFQ2 0:2016End of half10–3
KCQ3 15:00310Turnover10–3
SFQ3 13:3034Punt10–3
KCQ3 12:3139Punt10–3
SFQ3 10:453-1Punt10–3
KCQ3 9:02847Field goal10–6
SFQ3 5:0130Punt10–6
KCQ3 3:5938Punt10–12
KCQ3 2:32116Touchdown10–13
SFQ3 2:281275Touchdown16–13
KCQ4 11:221169Field goal16–16
SFQ4 5:46640Field goal19–16
KCQ4 1:531064Field goal19–19
SFQ4 0:0300End of half19–19
SFOT1476Field goal22–19
KCOT1375Touchdown22–25

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy23/3825510
Jauan Jennings1/12110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey22803.60
Brock Purdy3124.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.382.70
Elijah Mitchell284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey88801
Brandon Aiyuk36490
Jauan Jennings45421
Deebo Samuel Sr.311330
Ray-Ray McCloud11190
Chris Conley11180
George Kittle2340

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes34/4633321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes9667.30
Isiah Pacheco18593.30
Rashee Rice252.50
Clyde Edwards-Helaire100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce910930
Mecole Hardman33571
Justin Watson35540
Rashee Rice68390
Isiah Pacheco66330
Noah Gray22220
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35201
Jerick McKinnon22150
Richie James0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage0.00
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.67