2014 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

17·22

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SF -4

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge map49ers
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.029
  • 42.6%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.167
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.58CPOE-2.41
  • 40.0%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.44
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–3 since 1999

KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7KC @ SF28–18KC
2023 · playoffsSF @ KC22–25KC
2022 · W7KC @ SF44–23KC
2019 · playoffsSF @ KC20–31KC
2018 · W3SF @ KC27–38KC
2010 · W3SF @ KC10–31KC
2006 · W4SF @ KC0–41KC
2002 · W10KC @ SF13–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SF
KCQ1 15:001276Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 8:37959Field goal7–3
KCQ1 4:361363Field goal10–3
SFQ2 12:18644Field goal10–6
KCQ2 9:44628Punt10–6
SFQ2 7:101484Touchdown10–13
KCQ2 0:3123End of half10–13
SFQ3 15:0039Punt10–13
KCQ3 13:27458Touchdown17–13
SFQ3 11:56848Field goal17–16
KCQ3 6:1639Punt17–16
SFQ3 4:063-6Punt17–16
KCQ3 2:22519Punt17–16
SFQ3 0:371271Field goal17–19
KCQ4 8:4239Punt17–19
SFQ4 7:101351Field goal17–22
KCQ4 2:1220Turnover17–22
SFQ4 2:0000End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith16/3015811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles15805.30
De'Anthony Thomas11717.01
Alex Smith166.00
Knile Davis263.00
A.J. Jenkins1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Junior Hemingway44500
Dwayne Bowe36420
Anthony Fasano47320
Travis Kelce23151
Jamaal Charles1440
A.J. Jenkins1230
Demetrius Harris0100
Knile Davis0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick14/2620110
Anquan Boldin0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore181075.90
Carlos Hyde10434.30
Colin Kaepernick10181.80
Bruce Ellington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd35760
Anquan Boldin48720
Michael Crabtree14160
Derek Carrier22160
Steve Johnson1291
Frank Gore1110
Bruce Ellington1110
Vance McDonald0200
Carlos Hyde0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.18