Closing spread
SF -4
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.029
- 42.6%Success rate42.6%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.58CPOE-2.41
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.44
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/30 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Hemingway | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 14/26 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 107 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.18