Closing spread
KC -6
Total
53
Model margin
+6.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.236
- 44.8%Success rate50.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.135EPA / rush+0.018
- 11.4%Explosive rate12.1%
- -2.68CPOE+4.64
- 37.2%Third-down rate47.8%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 1.66Points / drive3.03
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/30 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 10 | 90 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/38 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 114 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.0%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.84