2018 · Week 3

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

27·38

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

53

Model margin

+6.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.236
  • 44.8%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.135EPA / rush+0.018
  • 11.4%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -2.68CPOE+4.64
  • 37.2%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 1.66Points / drive3.03
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–3 since 1999

KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7KC @ SF28–18KC
2023 · playoffsSF @ KC22–25KC
2022 · W7KC @ SF44–23KC
2019 · playoffsSF @ KC20–31KC
2014 · W5KC @ SF17–22SF
2010 · W3SF @ KC10–31KC
2006 · W4SF @ KC0–41KC
2002 · W10KC @ SF13–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–KC
SFQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:191162Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:24531Punt0–7
KCQ1 5:46933Touchdown0–14
SFQ1 2:201077Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 11:52575Touchdown7–21
SFQ2 8:5434Punt7–21
KCQ2 7:12852Touchdown7–28
SFQ2 3:3758Punt7–28
KCQ2 2:001173Touchdown7–35
SFQ2 0:34554Field goal10–35
KCQ3 15:00723Punt10–35
SFQ3 11:36787Touchdown16–35
KCQ3 8:593-5Punt16–35
SFQ3 7:551272Touchdown24–35
KCQ3 2:431051Field goal24–38
SFQ4 13:471768Field goal27–38
KCQ4 5:17922End of half27–38

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/3025120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida10909.00
Alfred Morris14674.81
Jimmy Garoppolo3237.70
Raheem Mostert100.00
Marquise Goodwin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle57790
Marquise Goodwin34301
Kendrick Bourne12270
Matt Breida33270
Trent Taylor34240
Pierre Garcon14110
Raheem Mostert1180
Garrett Celek1170

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3831430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt18442.42
Sammy Watkins22010.00
Patrick Mahomes571.40
Tyreek Hill252.50
Spencer Ware111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8101140
Sammy Watkins58551
Tyreek Hill25510
Spencer Ware23290
Damien Williams22160
Demetrius Harris13131
Chris Conley23131
Marcus Kemp1170
Demarcus Robinson0100
Kareem Hunt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.0%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.84