Closing spread
SF -5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play+0.098
- 47.5%Success rate45.2%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.159
- +0.083EPA / rush+0.004
- 11.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.1%Third-down rate52.5%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 2.29Points / drive1.83
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/27 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 8 | 10 | 134 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/35 | 175 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.95