Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.034
- 38.8%Success rate42.3%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- -4.51CPOE-1.87
- 33.2%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.30Points / drive1.70
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/42 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 9 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/27 | 250 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 3 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.69