2024 · Week 7

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

28·18

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge map49ers
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.7%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.059
  • 5.8%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.51CPOE+1.77
  • 48.6%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.24
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–3 since 1999

KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · playoffsSF @ KC22–25KC
2022 · W7KC @ SF44–23KC
2019 · playoffsSF @ KC20–31KC
2018 · W3SF @ KC27–38KC
2014 · W5KC @ SF17–22SF
2010 · W3SF @ KC10–31KC
2006 · W4SF @ KC0–41KC
2002 · W10KC @ SF13–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–SF
SFQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:25730Turnover on downs0–0
SFQ1 9:1010Turnover0–0
KCQ1 8:59634Turnover0–0
SFQ1 6:1139Punt0–0
KCQ1 4:1033Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:0544Field goal0–3
KCQ1 1:06960Touchdown7–3
SFQ2 11:2438Punt7–3
KCQ2 10:21730Touchdown14–3
SFQ2 6:45521Punt14–3
KCQ2 4:00513Punt14–3
SFQ2 1:39974Field goal14–6
KCQ3 15:0032Turnover14–6
SFQ3 13:55723Touchdown14–12
KCQ3 10:2930Punt14–12
SFQ3 9:28746Turnover14–12
KCQ3 5:561379Touchdown21–12
SFQ4 14:131060Turnover21–12
KCQ4 9:291280Touchdown28–12
SFQ4 3:09950Touchdown28–18
KCQ4 1:0800End of half28–18

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2715402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt22783.52
Patrick Mahomes5397.81
Mecole Hardman23819.01
Carson Steele6172.80
Samaje Perine263.00
Xavier Worthy155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Gray44660
Samaje Perine11220
Xavier Worthy38190
Travis Kelce45170
Mecole Hardman12170
Justin Watson1180
Kareem Hunt2250
Joseph Fortson0100
Skyy Moore0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy17/3121203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason14584.10
Brock Purdy8273.42
Isaac Guerendo122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle67920
Jacob Cowing23500
Brandon Aiyuk26230
Ricky Pearsall35210
Jordan Mason22110
Ronnie Bell12100
Isaac Guerendo1150
Chris Conley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.10