Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.063
- 47.7%Success rate46.0%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.059
- 5.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.51CPOE+1.77
- 48.6%Third-down rate43.1%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.36Points / drive2.24
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. SF are 2-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/27 | 154 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Carson Steele | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gray | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 17/31 | 212 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Jacob Cowing | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaac Guerendo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.10