Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
33
Model margin
+0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.045
- 40.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.108EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.028
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.00CPOE-2.37
- 42.7%Third-down rate37.1%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.57Points / drive1.52
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. DEN are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/34 | 165 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 13/24 | 106 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.36