Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.055
- 45.5%Success rate43.0%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.117
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.8%Explosive rate11.1%
- +3.73CPOE-1.03
- 49.3%Third-down rate42.8%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.18Points / drive1.67
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/38 | 223 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/33 | 354 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.6%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.97
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.74