Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.151
- 42.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.25CPOE+1.13
- 33.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.48Points / drive0.99
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:11 | 10 | 82 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 4:23 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 0:29 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q2 12:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q2 10:18 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q2 8:41 | 8 | 28 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q2 4:15 | 5 | 33 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q2 2:17 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:33 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DET | Q3 12:50 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIN | Q3 10:57 | 8 | 36 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| DET | Q3 6:35 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| MIN | Q3 5:11 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DET | Q4 14:14 | 2 | -10 | Opp touchdown | 17–16 |
| DET | Q4 13:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–16 |
| MIN | Q4 12:08 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–16 |
| DET | Q4 9:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–16 |
| MIN | Q4 8:07 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 17–19 |
| DET | Q4 3:00 | 7 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 17–26 |
| DET | Q4 1:31 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 17–26 |
| MIN | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/42 | 225 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/34 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 26 | 123 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49