Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.151
- 42.6%Success rate39.3%
- -0.057EPA / dropback-0.174
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.25CPOE+1.13
- 33.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate45.1%
- 1.48Points / drive0.99
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 23/42 | 225 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 26/34 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 26 | 123 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.49