2006 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Chad Pennington

0·41

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Byron Leftwich

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.011
  • 43.0%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.110EPA / rush+0.053
  • 6.5%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +2.38CPOE+0.26
  • 44.6%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.59
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
NYJQ1 15:0079Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:53450Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 9:4434Punt0–7
JAXQ1 7:31671Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 4:4436Punt0–14
JAXQ1 3:0732Punt0–14
NYJQ1 2:07511Punt0–14
JAXQ2 14:1738Touchdown0–21
NYJQ2 12:523-1Turnover0–21
JAXQ2 11:29919Touchdown0–28
NYJQ2 7:10641Punt0–28
JAXQ2 4:22712Punt0–28
NYJQ2 1:1036Punt0–28
JAXQ2 0:2500End of half0–28
JAXQ3 15:00959Field goal0–31
NYJQ3 10:5210Turnover0–31
JAXQ3 10:35329Touchdown0–38
NYJQ3 8:501032Punt0–38
JAXQ3 2:5636Punt0–38
NYJQ3 1:11732Turnover on downs0–38
JAXQ4 13:1044Punt0–38
NYJQ4 11:0149Turnover on downs0–38
JAXQ4 9:271054Field goal0–41
NYJQ4 2:421028Turnover0–41
JAXQ4 0:1300End of half0–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington10/177103
Kellen Clemens0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Washington231014.40
Chad Pennington2178.50
Brad Smith284.00
Kellen Clemens122.00
Kevan Barlow4-1-0.30

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Byron Leftwich9/2014020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor211115.31
Maurice Jones-Drew13594.52
Reggie Williams199.00
Byron Leftwich420.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.50
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.72