Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:25 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:49 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:45 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:25 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:03 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:35 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q2 11:19 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:55 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 1:11 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:09 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q3 11:30 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| LAC | Q3 10:04 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| PIT | Q3 5:21 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:40 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| PIT | Q4 8:59 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 13–20 |
| LAC | Q4 5:58 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 13–23 |
| PIT | Q4 1:05 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 13–23 |
| LAC | Q4 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/31 | 220 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Najeh Davenport | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.