Closing spread
STL -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:50 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:49 | 18 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:38 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 39 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:12 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 10:25 | 6 | 23 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 8:28 | 10 | 49 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| GB | Q2 3:27 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 10:35 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 6:38 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| GB | Q3 3:04 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:06 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| GB | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–13 |
| LA | Q4 13:50 | 8 | 78 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| GB | Q4 9:25 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| LA | Q4 6:42 | 5 | 44 | Punt | 23–20 |
| GB | Q4 4:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–20 |
| LA | Q4 3:10 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 23–20 |
| GB | Q4 2:46 | 10 | 39 | Turnover | 23–20 |
| LA | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/39 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Herron | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.