Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutAlec OgletreeLBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulMaurice AlexanderSGroin· DNP
- QuestionableEugene SimsDEKnee· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRKnee· DNP
- ProbableRobert QuinnDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableChase ReynoldsRBKnee· Full
Packers
- OutSean RichardsonSNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulJake RyanLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableBryan BulagaTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDavante AdamsWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDemetri GoodsonCBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMorgan BurnettSCalf· DNP
- ProbableJames JonesWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableRandall CobbWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableClay MatthewsLBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableJayrone ElliottLBQuadricep· Full
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:57 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:09 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 6:48 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:07 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 3:19 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:36 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 14:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 12:22 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 7:12 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:03 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| GB | Q2 1:40 | 6 | 25 | End of half | 10–14 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 12:41 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 10:24 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 8:26 | 7 | 33 | Missed field goal | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 4:15 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 3:35 | 5 | 6 | Missed field goal | 10–21 |
| GB | Q3 0:48 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LA | Q4 11:38 | 5 | 73 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| GB | Q4 9:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LA | Q4 7:32 | 8 | 25 | Missed field goal | 10–21 |
| GB | Q4 3:23 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 1:03 | 3 | 68 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| GB | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 2 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.