Closing spread
GB -8.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/30 | 241 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 2 | 3 | 77 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| James Starks | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.