Closing spread
GB -4
Total
45
Model margin
+0.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Packers
- OutB.J. RajiDTAnkle· Limited
- OutGreg JenningsWRGroin· DNP
- OutNick PerryLBKnee· DNP
- OutSam ShieldsCBShin· DNP
- ProbableAlex GreenRBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJermichael FinleyTEShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAaron RodgersQBCalf· Full
- ProbableD.J. WilliamsTEHamstring· Full
- ProbableDavon HouseCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableSean RichardsonSHamstring· Full
Rams
- OutDanny AmendolaWRShoulder· DNP
- OutMario HagganLBThigh· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableWayne HunterTBack· DNP
- ProbableJanoris JenkinsCBBack· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:15 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:41 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 7:38 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:23 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 5:18 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:17 | 11 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| GB | Q2 10:21 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 6:02 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| GB | Q2 0:40 | 4 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–6 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 8:04 | 6 | -7 | Punt | 17–6 |
| GB | Q3 4:51 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 1:25 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–6 |
| GB | Q3 1:17 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| LA | Q4 11:52 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| GB | Q4 8:50 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:06 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| GB | Q4 2:07 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 30–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:49 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 30–20 |
| GB | Q4 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 30/37 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 20 | 35 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 9 | 122 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 8 | 89 | 2 |
| James Jones | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.