Closing spread
GB -4
Total
45
Model margin
+0.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. STL are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 30/37 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Green | 20 | 35 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 9 | 122 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 8 | 89 | 2 |
| James Jones | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jermichael Finley | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.