2021 · Week 12

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

28·36

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

LA -2

Total

47

Model margin

+2.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPackers
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.136
  • 46.6%Success rate48.9%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback+0.222
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.003
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.40CPOE+4.71
  • 42.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5GB @ LA24–19GB
2023 · W9LA @ GB3–20GB
2022 · W15LA @ GB12–24GB
2020 · playoffsLA @ GB18–32GB
2018 · W8GB @ LA27–29RAMS
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–GB
LAQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:311556Punt0–0
LAQ1 4:232-3Turnover0–0
GBQ1 3:4236Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 2:1149Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ1 0:2233Field goal0–10
LAQ2 13:29381Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 12:42666Field goal7–13
LAQ2 9:4038Punt7–13
LAQ2 8:1337Field goal10–13
GBQ2 7:20689Touchdown10–20
LAQ2 4:21875Touchdown17–20
GBQ2 1:28723Punt17–20
LAQ2 0:1100End of half17–20
GBQ3 15:001487Touchdown17–27
LAQ3 7:1830Punt17–27
GBQ3 6:353-2Punt17–27
GBQ3 4:47514Field goal17–30
LAQ3 2:2833Opp touchdown17–36
LAQ3 1:52780Touchdown25–36
GBQ4 14:52514Punt25–36
LAQ4 12:41525Punt25–36
GBQ4 10:49613Punt25–36
LAQ4 7:3642Punt25–36
GBQ4 6:24731Missed field goal25–36
LAQ4 3:051052Field goal28–36
GBQ4 0:1800End of half28–36

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3830231
Cooper Kupp0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson16553.40
Sony Michel3144.70
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp710960
Van Jefferson39931
Odell Beckham Jr.510811
Darrell Henderson44181
Sony Michel11110
Tyler Higbee1530

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4530720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon20693.50
Aaron Jones10232.30
Aaron Rodgers200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams891040
Randall Cobb45951
Marquez Valdes-Scantling49500
AJ Dillon55211
Allen Lazard26130
Josiah Deguara24130
Equanimeous St. Brown1270
Marcedes Lewis2340
Aaron Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+2.41