Closing spread
LA -2
Total
47
Model margin
+2.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.136
- 46.6%Success rate48.9%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.222
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.003
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.40CPOE+4.71
- 42.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.32Points / drive2.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/38 | 302 | 3 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 10 | 81 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/45 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 9 | 104 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+2.41