Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
57
Model margin
+3.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.149
- 45.9%Success rate50.8%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.065
- 9.3%Explosive rate12.1%
- -1.39CPOE+1.24
- 36.5%Third-down rate45.0%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.05Points / drive2.63
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/30 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 86 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 7 | 133 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/35 | 295 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin+3.14