2018 · Week 8

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·29

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

57

Model margin

+3.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapRams
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.149
  • 45.9%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.065
  • 9.3%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -1.39CPOE+1.24
  • 36.5%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.63
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5GB @ LA24–19GB
2023 · W9LA @ GB3–20GB
2022 · W15LA @ GB12–24GB
2021 · W12LA @ GB28–36GB
2020 · playoffsLA @ GB18–32GB
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–LA
GBQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:26619Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:04675Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 6:01619Punt7–0
GBQ1 3:12645Field goal10–0
LAQ2 14:1945Punt10–0
GBQ2 12:1433Punt10–0
LAQ2 10:24719Punt10–0
GBQ2 7:16521Punt10–0
LAQ2 4:49627Punt10–2
GBQ2 2:541-1Safety10–2
LAQ2 2:47772Touchdown10–8
GBQ2 0:2115End of half10–8
LAQ3 15:0035Punt10–8
GBQ3 13:57838Field goal13–8
LAQ3 9:38775Touchdown13–16
GBQ3 7:1935Punt13–16
LAQ3 6:07971Touchdown13–23
GBQ3 1:50575Touchdown20–23
LAQ3 0:13750Field goal20–26
GBQ4 11:39575Touchdown27–26
LAQ4 8:5044Punt27–26
GBQ4 6:493-6Punt27–26
LAQ4 5:20734Field goal27–29
GBQ4 2:0500Turnover27–29
LAQ4 1:56317Turnover27–29

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3028610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12867.21
Jamaal Williams492.31
Ty Montgomery263.00
Aaron Rodgers155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams571330
Marquez Valdes-Scantling25451
Randall Cobb45400
Equanimeous St. Brown22310
Jimmy Graham14210
Geronimo Allison11140
Ty Montgomery1220
Aaron Jones2200
Robert Tonyan0100
Jamaal Williams0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/3529530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley251144.60
Brandin Cooks294.50
Malcolm Brown177.00
Jared Goff571.40
Josh Reynolds1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Gurley67811
Brandin Cooks38740
Robert Woods57700
Josh Reynolds35422
Gerald Everett12220
Tyler Higbee1160
Nick Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin+3.14