Closing spread
GB -8
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.017
- 41.2%Success rate46.2%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.69CPOE+0.52
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.57Points / drive1.91
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/21 | 111 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/30 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Patrick Taylor | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+3.21