2022 · Week 15

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Baker Mayfield

12·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 15°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -8

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPackers
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.017
  • 41.2%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.009
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.69CPOE+0.52
  • 40.2%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.91
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5GB @ LA24–19GB
2023 · W9LA @ GB3–20GB
2021 · W12LA @ GB28–36GB
2020 · playoffsLA @ GB18–32GB
2018 · W8GB @ LA27–29RAMS
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–GB
LAQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:391152Field goal0–3
LAQ1 4:2534Punt0–3
GBQ1 2:36412Turnover0–3
LAQ1 0:28838Field goal3–3
GBQ2 10:411174Touchdown3–10
LAQ2 4:26928Field goal6–10
GBQ2 0:46427End of half6–10
GBQ3 15:001358Touchdown6–17
LAQ3 8:04410Punt6–17
GBQ3 5:33635Touchdown6–24
LAQ3 2:31655Touchdown12–24
GBQ3 0:225-11Punt12–24
LAQ4 13:133-3Turnover12–24
GBQ4 11:53216Turnover12–24
LAQ4 10:555-1Punt12–24
GBQ4 8:511285End of half12–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/2111111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers12655.40
Kyren Williams273.50
Brandon Powell133.00
Baker Mayfield111.00
Tutu Atwell1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Akers33350
Van Jefferson22320
Tyler Higbee45271
Tutu Atwell14100
Brandon Powell1240
Ben Skowronek1330
Malcolm Brown0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3022911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17905.30
AJ Dillon11363.32
Patrick Taylor4153.80
Aaron Rodgers3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs55550
Christian Watson46460
Aaron Jones45361
AJ Dillon33350
Randall Cobb34320
Marcedes Lewis11140
Allen Lazard1270
Robert Tonyan1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+3.21