2023 · Week 9

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Brett Rypien

3·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

38

Model margin

+7.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPackers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.075
  • 44.9%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -3.54CPOE+1.07
  • 41.4%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.16
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5GB @ LA24–19GB
2022 · W15LA @ GB12–24GB
2021 · W12LA @ GB28–36GB
2020 · playoffsLA @ GB18–32GB
2018 · W8GB @ LA27–29RAMS
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–GB
LAQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:271033Punt0–0
LAQ1 5:516-2Turnover0–0
GBQ1 3:24741Touchdown0–7
LAQ2 14:1936Punt0–7
GBQ2 12:53424Punt0–7
LAQ2 11:0539Punt0–7
GBQ2 9:3249Punt0–7
LAQ2 7:281256Field goal3–7
GBQ2 1:42944Missed field goal3–7
GBQ3 15:00111Turnover3–7
LAQ3 14:45732Punt3–7
GBQ3 10:43530Turnover3–7
LAQ3 8:0935Missed field goal3–7
GBQ3 6:29653Field goal3–10
LAQ3 2:10728Turnover on downs3–10
GBQ4 14:563-6Punt3–10
LAQ4 13:3520Turnover3–10
GBQ4 13:23634Field goal3–13
LAQ4 9:0834Punt3–13
GBQ4 8:26872Touchdown3–20
LAQ4 3:41627Turnover on downs3–20
GBQ4 2:32649End of half3–20

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Rypien13/2813001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman12322.70
Brett Rypien3196.30
Darrell Henderson10191.90
Ben Skowronek1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp27480
Puka Nacua37320
Darrell Henderson22160
Demarcus Robinson11150
Tutu Atwell47130
Austin Trammell1160
Tyler Higbee0100
Royce Freeman0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love20/2622810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones20733.61
Emanuel Wilson44310.80
AJ Dillon9404.40
Jayden Reed12121.00
Jordan Love471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luke Musgrave34511
Dontayvion Wicks44490
Christian Watson12370
Romeo Doubs33360
Aaron Jones46260
Jayden Reed33190
Josiah Deguara1170
AJ Dillon1130
Malik Heath0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.2%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.98
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.74