Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
38
Model margin
+7.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.075
- 44.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -3.54CPOE+1.07
- 41.4%Third-down rate47.4%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.13Points / drive2.16
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 13/28 | 130 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/26 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.98
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.74