2024 · Week 5

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

24·19

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapRams
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.038
  • 44.8%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.069
  • 11.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.37CPOE-0.97
  • 37.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9LA @ GB3–20GB
2022 · W15LA @ GB12–24GB
2021 · W12LA @ GB28–36GB
2020 · playoffsLA @ GB18–32GB
2018 · W8GB @ LA27–29RAMS
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–LA
GBQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:1737Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:50996Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 6:45766Turnover on downs7–0
GBQ1 3:2438Punt7–0
LAQ1 1:571360Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 9:4731Punt7–7
LAQ2 8:261026Punt7–7
GBQ2 3:0633Opp touchdown7–13
GBQ2 2:02942Field goal10–13
LAQ3 15:00546Turnover10–13
GBQ3 11:58270Touchdown17–13
LAQ3 11:15825Turnover17–13
GBQ3 8:01754Touchdown24–13
LAQ3 3:55821Punt24–13
GBQ4 14:151448Punt24–13
LAQ4 6:021286Touchdown24–19
GBQ4 3:30413Punt24–19
LAQ4 2:571133Turnover on downs24–19
GBQ4 1:0200End of half24–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love15/2622421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs19733.81
Emanuel Wilson6244.00
Jayden Reed2199.50
Jordan Love3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tucker Kraft45882
Jayden Reed46780
Josh Jacobs11210
Dontayvion Wicks27200
Malik Heath23140
Bo Melton12120
Emanuel Wilson11-90

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford29/4526011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams221024.61
Blake Corum5255.00
Tutu Atwell177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Whittington710890
Tutu Atwell610580
Colby Parkinson713520
Demarcus Robinson35281
Hunter Long22160
Blake Corum1180
Xavier Smith2260
Kyren Williams1130
Davis Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.48