Closing spread
GB -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.038
- 44.8%Success rate47.5%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.069
- 11.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.37CPOE-0.97
- 37.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.38Points / drive2.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LA are 3-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 15/26 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 5 | 88 | 2 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 29/45 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Whittington | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 6 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 7 | 13 | 52 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Hunter Long | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48