Closing spread
GB -7
Total
45
Model margin
+4.6est.
GB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.221
- 44.6%Success rate50.7%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.353
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.025
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
- +0.37CPOE+6.90
- 44.2%Third-down rate50.7%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
- 1.76Points / drive2.98
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4 since 1999
GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/27 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 18 | 90 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 8 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 6 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/36 | 296 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 99 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.56