2020 · DIV

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

18·32

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

45

Model margin

+4.6est.

GB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapPackers
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.221
  • 44.6%Success rate50.7%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.353
  • -0.081EPA / rush+0.025
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +0.37CPOE+6.90
  • 44.2%Third-down rate50.7%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate86.4%
  • 1.76Points / drive2.98
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 11–4 since 1999

GB have won 5 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. GB are 12-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5GB @ LA24–19GB
2023 · W9LA @ GB3–20GB
2022 · W15LA @ GB12–24GB
2021 · W12LA @ GB28–36GB
2018 · W8GB @ LA27–29RAMS
2015 · W5STL @ GB10–24GB
2012 · W7GB @ STL30–20GB
2011 · W6STL @ GB3–24GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–GB
LAQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:251163Field goal0–3
LAQ1 8:39767Field goal3–3
GBQ1 4:361469Touchdown3–10
LAQ2 11:3730Punt3–10
GBQ2 9:151057Touchdown3–16
LAQ2 3:29975Touchdown10–16
GBQ2 0:29454Field goal10–19
GBQ3 15:00675Touchdown10–25
LAQ3 12:103-6Punt10–25
GBQ3 10:31734Punt10–25
LAQ3 7:261174Touchdown18–25
GBQ3 1:41827Punt18–25
LAQ4 13:17725Punt18–25
GBQ4 9:46572Touchdown18–32
LAQ4 6:5275Turnover on downs18–32
GBQ4 4:59637End of half18–32

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/2717410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers18905.01
Jared Goff166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds34650
Robert Woods810480
Van Jefferson67461
Cam Akers1160
Tyler Higbee2250
Malcolm Brown1140
Gerald Everett0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3629620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones14997.11
Jamaal Williams12655.40
AJ Dillon6274.50
Aaron Rodgers4-3-0.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard48961
Davante Adams910661
Robert Tonyan44600
Marquez Valdes-Scantling48330
Equanimeous St. Brown12270
Aaron Jones12140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.56