Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.153
- 37.6%Success rate51.4%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.37CPOE+4.70
- 32.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.35Points / drive2.54
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-21 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:25 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 6:41 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:14 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:11 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:56 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q2 12:57 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q2 9:26 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| IND | Q2 5:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q2 4:02 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 10–0 |
| IND | Q2 0:51 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 10–0 |
| IND | Q3 12:39 | 12 | 90 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| TEN | Q3 6:09 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| IND | Q3 1:33 | 8 | 51 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| TEN | Q4 11:53 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| IND | Q4 9:38 | 10 | 43 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| TEN | Q4 5:10 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–14 |
| IND | Q4 3:22 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 13–14 |
| TEN | Q4 0:17 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 13–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10/21 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/31 | 166 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48