Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.153
- 37.6%Success rate51.4%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- -5.37CPOE+4.70
- 32.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.35Points / drive2.54
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. IND are 29-20 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 10/21 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/31 | 166 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48