Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.112
- 41.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.242
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.28CPOE+0.25
- 30.9%Third-down rate33.0%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.31Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 6–1 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.6 points. DET are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 21/34 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/36 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 23 | 127 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86