Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
41
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.112
- 41.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.242
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.28CPOE+0.25
- 30.9%Third-down rate33.0%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate53.4%
- 1.31Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. DET are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 10:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:44 | 6 | 26 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:05 | 4 | -16 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 4:35 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 3:23 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| DET | Q1 2:26 | 3 | -8 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| BUF | Q1 1:01 | 4 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 14:11 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 11:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 9:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 7:53 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 5:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 4:07 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DET | Q2 2:32 | 8 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| BUF | Q2 0:40 | 2 | -12 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 10–17 |
| DET | Q3 11:17 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 10–17 |
| BUF | Q3 6:47 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| DET | Q3 2:53 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| BUF | Q4 14:10 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| DET | Q4 9:23 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| BUF | Q4 7:20 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 17–20 |
| DET | Q4 4:04 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 17–20 |
| BUF | Q4 0:09 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 21/34 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/36 | 278 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 23 | 127 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Brian Calhoun | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86