Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
50
Model margin
+5.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.021
- 34.3%Success rate47.1%
- -0.156EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- 29.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 0.96Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–1 since 1999
BUF have won 6 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. BUF are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 8:56 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:25 | 2 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 3:40 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q2 14:52 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 9:05 | 10 | 95 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q2 5:03 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DET | Q2 5:01 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| BUF | Q2 3:00 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DET | Q2 1:04 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–14 |
| BUF | Q3 13:53 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| DET | Q3 11:09 | 8 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 14–17 |
| BUF | Q3 6:40 | 11 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| DET | Q3 2:02 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q3 1:01 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DET | Q4 13:32 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q4 11:56 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DET | Q4 9:30 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 14–24 |
| BUF | Q4 7:08 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–24 |
| DET | Q4 6:01 | 6 | 46 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 3:07 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 17–24 |
| DET | Q4 2:47 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–24 |
| BUF | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 20/42 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 24 | 83 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 8 | 12 | 53 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Az-Zahir Hakim | 3 | 8 | 33 | 1 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 21/36 | 302 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joe Burns | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 9 | 18 | 123 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 6 | 101 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.05